Suggestions for Trading In Running

  • Experience has shown that Handicaps and or races for all age horses are the the most reliable. Mainly because there will generally be plenty of past form and more past data to go on regarding a horses run style.
     
  • It is probably best to only trade on horses that have at least five or ten previous runs as you may not have enough data for a runner if having less than this. You can change the number of previous runs in the settings so it will only show horses that have had your chosen previous runs.
     
  • Short priced horses do not always drop in price as quickly as you may expect, plus the shorter the price, the more it has to drop to make a worthwhile profit depending on how large you wish your stakes to be.
     
  • To make a £3 profit from a £10 stake requires just a 4 tick drop from a BSP of 40.0 whereas to make the same profit from a price of 5.0 would need a drop of 13 ticks. Horses that often drop from a large BSP are worth finding and following if starting at a big price again.
     
  • When Dobbing, a horse needing to half in price from 4.0 needs to hit 2.0 in running whereas a horse starting at 16.0 needs to drop to 8.0. For a horse to hit 2.0 in running it would need to be quite close to winning whilst a horse hitting 8.0 from 16.0 only needs to be running well and be in contention during the race. This means that a horse at a shorter price will not half in price as easily even if it is going really well during the race, it will generally need to be in with a great chance of winning in the very latter stages.
     
  • Do not be totally put off by horses that start at very big prices, just look at their previous in running stats to see if they have dropped in price from a high BSP before. However, also be aware that the previous in running low price for horses at very big prices is a little unreliable and does not mean you would have been able to trade at the prices shown.
     
  • Between about 6.0 and 40.0 or so seems to be where the better opportunities lay fo decent back to lay opportunities. For lay to back trades, any price you want as long as you can match the liability initially if placing your lay bet at say 20.0 or over.
  • A horse may not drop in price so quickly if there is a very short or odds on favourite as traders will be expecting the favourite to win.
     
  • It is not always just front runners that drop in price, in fact these horses can be well known to most traders so they are wary of them during the race, or everyone can see which horse is leading on the television. So if you have identified a horse that always runs from the front, so will many others and those watching the television will see it leading as well.
     
  • Quite often an obvious front runner will have to get quite close to winning before dropping to anything worthwhile in price as most will expect it to get caught and overtaken at some point. 
     
  • Try and look for horses that run just behind the leaders and travel well. 
     
  • The tool will highlight the best opportunities for you but you should be aware of what is happening in the race. If you do initiate a trade on a front runner and it starts in midfield or can’t get to the front it may be sensible to take a small loss quite quickly if you can.

     
  • It is quite surprising how quickly a horse that travels well in behind the leaders will drop in price. An excellent jump that takes a horse onto the tails of the leaders or a smooth run up on the outside going well and the horse can go shorten very quickly indeed.
     
  • Even a horse jumping well out the back can drop in price if the commentator keeps telling everyone how well the horse is jumping. The same with a flat race and a commentator reminding everyone how well Horse X is travelling at the rear. This can be enough for the price to drop quite considerably and the horse may never get out of the last three and eventually come nowhere.
     
  • If you are trading a back2lay bet in a jump race and your horse is not towards the front or in the front half of the runners and the race is more than halfway run, it may also be wise to think about cancelling the trade if you can and taking a small loss as it is probably unlikely the horse will pick up.
     
  • Closing out for a small loss is a good habit to get into. We have all waited for a horse to pick up from an unpromising position knowing it isn’t ever going to but still left our bet running, hoping that all those in front will fall over or the hand of God will pick them up and drop them out the back! 

 

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