The data provided by the In Running Trading Tool is primarily to help find trading opportunities for Back to Lay, Lay to Back, Dobs and Trobs etc., however there have been a number of ways I have used the information to find straight back and lay bets and one has come to my attention recently.
A follower of the In Running Trading Tool on Twitter, @BrianWe73278658, gave me the original idea he was using and between us, we have adapted these rules now and come up with two ways of using the selections found.
There have been 40 days of results to date and Brian has kindly allowed me to post the rules here, along with an updated spreadsheet of results.
Both back and lay bets are found using the same set of rules first
It is very simple to find the bets for this idea and initially, you use the same set of rules however, you then split these into two with a final filter to get the back bets and the lay bets.
Remember, these bets are for backing and laying in the traditional way on the betting exchanges, although you can use the idea for different trades if you wish to.
1. You will need a subscription to the In Running Trading Tool, so first of all login at:
2. Leave all Settings as the default settings and then click the D.O.B tab at the top.
3. Click the Dob% column header twice to bring the highest percentages to the top.
4. Take all horses that have a 70% Dob% or higher that have also won at least one race shown in the Wins column.
5. You can copy and paste this list of horses into excel using the method shown on the video on this page here.
6. Once you have your list you divide them into back bets and lay bets as follows:
BACK all selections that have greater than 25% win strike rate that also have a BSP of 4.5 or less.
LAY all horses that have a BSP between 9.0 and 25.0
The reasoning behind these bets.
All selections have a 70% or better strike rate for Dobbing so generally, all horses run well in the majority of their races.
For the back bets, all horses have a better than 25% strike rate for winning and are 4.5 or less, so generally win often and are fancied on the day.
For the lay bets, these horses often have an excellent strike rate, yet have a BSP of at least 9.0 so are generally unfancied, despite the high strike rate that these horses have had previously.
So for both, we are combining past data, with logic and then the BSP to determine how to bet these selections.
Laying to a liability
Brian started using a maximum of 25.0 for the lay bets but for many 25.0 will be too high and in the main, I agree.
To this point there have been 111 lay bets and just the one winner, (losing bet), so a very good strike rate so far of 99%.
I think that the best staking for these would be to bet to a liability amount rather than level stakes. Whilst level stakes will have made you far more money, a losing bet or two at a price would damage the bank considerably.
Using a liability amount means less profit overall and smaller wins each time but means you will lose less when a selection does win.
For the back bets there have been 94 bets and 47 winners, so a 50% winning strike rate so far. With an average winning BSP of 2.68, just better than 13/8.
Profits and strategies
To date, the results using the rules above are as follows and this is for 40 days between April 25th and June 2nd.
Backing all selections over 25% win strike rate at 4.5 or less, to a £1 stake: +28.37 points
Laying all selections between 9.0 and 25.0 using £25 liability: +£165.62 points
You really need to make your own mind up on what you back or lay and what price ranges you use but hopefully, playing around with the spreadsheet and results will give you some ideas. You can also change the £25 liability amount on the spreadsheet to see what results you would get with different stakes.
Download the latest results
Just click the link below and it will download the current spreadsheet onto your computer. Please save this somewhere you will remember and then you can update the results yourself if you want to in the future.
Once you have pasted all possible selections into the spreadsheet on the blank tab/page, sort by the win% column J and delete any that have a 0% win strike rate.
From those remaining, all with a win strike rate of over 25% can be backed as long as the BSP is 4.5 or less. All can be laid as long as the BSP is between 9.0 and 25.0
Once you have downloaded the spreadsheet, the columns are as follows:
A to Q: Data copied from the in running trading tool Dob tab.
T: BSP low price, 1.01 if the horse won.
For the back bets.
V: Profit/loss to 1 point less 5% commission on a win.
W: Accumulated profit/loss by race date and race time.
For the lay bets.
V: Lay stake for liability amount set in cell Y1.
W: Lay stake less 5% commission for when the lay bet is successful.
X: Accumulated profit/loss by race date and race time.
Y: Cell Y1 is the amount of liability on the lay bets. You can change this to any amount and see the difference in the profits/loss in column X.
You can see how to copy and paste the in running trading tool data into excel as I have on the spreadsheet by looking at the video for this on the link below.
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