15 Tick Drop

This piece concerns the idea being discussed on Twitter. January 2019

A quick run through of the rules I am using for this.

You need to be a subscriber to the In Running Trading Tool to run these particular rules which are simple to follow.

 

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, lowest at the top.

4a. Selections must be LESS THAN 20% win strike rate 

4b. Selections must also be at least 50 or more in the Green% column

A review of the results so far

It hasn't been a week yet of testing this idea but it does seem that there are some points worth noting.

 

The original idea was to set the offset bet at 15 ticks within a BSP range of between 6.0 and 30. I then looked at results and saw that a lot of the larger prices were dropping 15 ticks and more so chose to just use a minimum of 6.0.

 

I then followed a race where Bally Lagan went off at over 140 and during the race I never saw the lay price go below about 80 or 90, yet the official in play low was 25. My feeling is that whilst it must probably have been at 25 at one split second for a trade of £100 as per Betfair rules, this could have meant that just £4 was traded @ 25 to give the £100 and makes me think that:

 

A) If these larger BSP's do drop to a shorter price in running, is there likely to be enough for me and many others to get matched at what may often still be quite a high price?

 

B) Looking at all past results where a horse has a large BSP and has dropped 15 ticks/30 ticks etc, the in play low price is likely to be pretty unreliable and therefore a reasonable maximum price should be used.

Some price comparisons

There have been 25 bets where the BSP was 21 or bigger and whilst 16 have officially dropped by 15 ticks or more, going on what I have written above, I would suggest that it would not have been possible to get matched on all or many of these, especially those at the higher end.

 

The average tick drop for these 25 bets is 29 and if you take out Novabridge who dropped 288 ticks from 25.43 to 1.08, this average drops to 21, barely above the desired 15 ticks mimumn.

 

On the other hand, looking at the 68 horses who have started at less than 21, 51 of them have dropped by 15 ticks or more and the average drop for these is far bigger at 73.

 

I would also be far more confident that there was plenty of money available to lay these horses in running at the shorter prices.

Minimum price

As I said I was originally using a minimum BSP of 6.0 for these but looking at the small amount of data so far, there have been 12 that started less than 6.0 and 9 have dropped at least 15 ticks. (There was one at 1.92 but I think at least you should aim for 2.5 as the lowest BSP).

 

The average drop for these 12 bets is 79, around the same as for those between 6.0 and under 21, so I am personally dropping my minimum BSP to 2.5 and see how these go.

 

So my max is 'Less than 21', my minimum is 'Greater than 2.5' and I m personally using an offset of 30 now. You must make your own decision on what settings you use.

When to place the back bet

I did have my bets to be triggered on Bet Angel, 2 seconds after the race goes in play with the offset bet placed at 15 ticks below the matched price, however I have since seen a couple of bets go wrong or not placed as I would have hoped and have changed this now.

 

One example was Zaeem that had a BSP of about 30 I think, (this is before I dropped my max BSP price rule), and my bet was placed correctly 2 seconds after the race went in play but I only managed to get my bet matched at 16, so my 15 ticks drop would have had to drop another 18 ticks more than had I got matched correctly at 30. If a horse flies out of the gate, the odds will drop dramatically and quickly.

 

Therfore I have changed my settings and am now placing the bet 20 seconds before the start time. Whilst a lot of races go off much later and the prices can change, I think you have a better chance of getting closer to the BSP this way and will more likely get matched.

 

This however means that the lay bet needs to be 'kept' when the race goes in play, so for this I have set a rule to keep all unmatched bets that is triggered 5 seconds before the off. 

 

You can click the images below to see my settings using Bet Angel and whilst you can only have 2 niominated horses and sometimes we have three in one race, you will just have to select one to omit, probably the one that has the biggest current price or one that is unlikely to be within your minimum and maximum prices.

 

General rule for the back bet and is the same for the second nominated horse.

 

The parameters for the back bets including the offset rules for the lay bet at 15 ticks.

 

This is the conditions showing how to choose a minimum and maximum price for your bets as well as how to ensure only 1 bet gets placed on each horse.

 

This shows the Keep all unmatched bets rule placed between 5 seconds before and 5 seconds after the start time to ensure the bets don't get cancelled at the off. You only need this General rule for this, no parameters or conditions.

 

Accessing all of the data

There is a lot more to the In Running  Trading Tool than just finding these bets and of course it will not always be possible to post the selections on Twitter.

 

If you want to purchase the In Running Trading Toolit costs just £67 for a full 12 months access and a better bargain will be hard to find - even if I say so myself!

 

Subscribe and make your payment here now >>

 

 

 

Please note, I do not claim to be an expert in trading but am happy to help when I can, so if you have any questions please Tweet them and I will reply when I can.

 

I am also happy to be given any advice from those who are far more experienced themselves as we all learn at different levels and speeds.

 

Best of luck today.

 

Ian

 

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